Anchor ads are not supported on this page.

4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs

U.S. Job Figures Actually Worse. Here's Why.

The Labor Department surprised economists by reporting this morning (Jan. 8) that the nation lost 85,000 jobs in December. Some economists had been predicting a rise in jobs, although November was revised upward to a gain of 4,000 -- the first increase in almost two years. But once again, I must report that the 85,000 number is actually worse. That's because the Labor Department has a computerized model that estimates the number of jobs created in new companies. Presumably, those jobs were not counted by the department's normal mechanism. It's called the birth-death adjustment model. In December, that model reported an increase in 59,000 jobs -- thus keeping the job loss from shooting well above 100,000.

The birth-death adjustment model lacks credibility. For example, the ADP report of private sector jobs, put out monthly by Automatic Data Processing, on Wednesday said that employment in small business (fewer than 25 workers) DECLINED by 25,000 jobs. It's not the same as the birth-death adjustment model, but it is close. For one thing, the government's model is an invention; it does not reflect real data. The ADP report does.

Overall, the ADP report found that the private sector lost 84,000 jobs in December. That was pooh-poohed by the economists who predicted the government report today would be positive. Now those economists are red-faced.

Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all

Previous article

Filmora 14’s AI Tools Streamline Content Creation for Marketers

The Labor Department surprised economists by reporting this morning (Jan. 8) that the nation lost 85,000 jobs in December. Some economists had been predicting a rise in jobs, although November was revised upward to a gain of 4,000 -- the first increase in almost two years. But once again, I must report that the 85,000 number is actually worse. That's because the Labor Department has a computerized model that estimates the number of jobs created in new companies. Presumably, those jobs were not counted by the department's normal mechanism. It's called the birth-death adjustment model. In December, that model reported an increase in 59,000 jobs -- thus keeping the job loss from shooting well above 100,000.

The birth-death adjustment model lacks credibility. For example, the ADP report of private sector jobs, put out monthly by Automatic Data Processing, on Wednesday said that employment in small business (fewer than 25 workers) DECLINED by 25,000 jobs. It's not the same as the birth-death adjustment model, but it is close. For one thing, the government's model is an invention; it does not reflect real data. The ADP report does.

Overall, the ADP report found that the private sector lost 84,000 jobs in December. That was pooh-poohed by the economists who predicted the government report today would be positive. Now those economists are red-faced.

Sponsored
Here's something you might be interested in.
Submit a free classified
or view all
Previous article

U.S. Jobs Rise Sharply but Unemployment Rate Up

Next Article

October Job Gains Anemic

Ask a Hipster — Advice you didn't know you needed Big Screen — Movie commentary Blurt — Music's inside track Booze News — San Diego spirits Classical Music — Immortal beauty Classifieds — Free and easy Cover Stories — Front-page features Drinks All Around — Bartenders' drink recipes Excerpts — Literary and spiritual excerpts Feast! — Food & drink reviews Feature Stories — Local news & stories Fishing Report — What’s getting hooked from ship and shore From the Archives — Spotlight on the past Golden Dreams — Talk of the town The Gonzo Report — Making the musical scene, or at least reporting from it Letters — Our inbox Movies@Home — Local movie buffs share favorites Movie Reviews — Our critics' picks and pans Musician Interviews — Up close with local artists Neighborhood News from Stringers — Hyperlocal news News Ticker — News & politics Obermeyer — San Diego politics illustrated Outdoors — Weekly changes in flora and fauna Overheard in San Diego — Eavesdropping illustrated Poetry — The old and the new Reader Travel — Travel section built by travelers Reading — The hunt for intellectuals Roam-O-Rama — SoCal's best hiking/biking trails San Diego Beer — Inside San Diego suds SD on the QT — Almost factual news Sheep and Goats — Places of worship Special Issues — The best of Street Style — San Diego streets have style Surf Diego — Real stories from those braving the waves Theater — On stage in San Diego this week Tin Fork — Silver spoon alternative Under the Radar — Matt Potter's undercover work Unforgettable — Long-ago San Diego Unreal Estate — San Diego's priciest pads Your Week — Daily event picks
4S Ranch Allied Gardens Alpine Baja Balboa Park Bankers Hill Barrio Logan Bay Ho Bay Park Black Mountain Ranch Blossom Valley Bonita Bonsall Borrego Springs Boulevard Campo Cardiff-by-the-Sea Carlsbad Carmel Mountain Carmel Valley Chollas View Chula Vista City College City Heights Clairemont College Area Coronado CSU San Marcos Cuyamaca College Del Cerro Del Mar Descanso Downtown San Diego Eastlake East Village El Cajon Emerald Hills Encanto Encinitas Escondido Fallbrook Fletcher Hills Golden Hill Grant Hill Grantville Grossmont College Guatay Harbor Island Hillcrest Imperial Beach Imperial Valley Jacumba Jamacha-Lomita Jamul Julian Kearny Mesa Kensington La Jolla Lakeside La Mesa Lemon Grove Leucadia Liberty Station Lincoln Acres Lincoln Park Linda Vista Little Italy Logan Heights Mesa College Midway District MiraCosta College Miramar Miramar College Mira Mesa Mission Beach Mission Hills Mission Valley Mountain View Mount Hope Mount Laguna National City Nestor Normal Heights North Park Oak Park Ocean Beach Oceanside Old Town Otay Mesa Pacific Beach Pala Palomar College Palomar Mountain Paradise Hills Pauma Valley Pine Valley Point Loma Point Loma Nazarene Potrero Poway Rainbow Ramona Rancho Bernardo Rancho Penasquitos Rancho San Diego Rancho Santa Fe Rolando San Carlos San Marcos San Onofre Santa Ysabel Santee San Ysidro Scripps Ranch SDSU Serra Mesa Shelltown Shelter Island Sherman Heights Skyline Solana Beach Sorrento Valley Southcrest South Park Southwestern College Spring Valley Stockton Talmadge Temecula Tierrasanta Tijuana UCSD University City University Heights USD Valencia Park Valley Center Vista Warner Springs
Close

Anchor ads are not supported on this page.

This Week’s Reader This Week’s Reader