Here's something you might be interested in.
The stock market has finished three martinis and is now working on its fourth. Governments have poured so much liquidity into global economies (more than $13 trillion in the U.S. alone), and used every trick in the book to lower interest rates, that stocks almost have to rise. Most economists think the recession will end in the second half of this year, but struggle through a very slow recovery. Now, some corporate chief executives who have a good feel for consumer sentiment are warning that sobriety is in order. McDonald's sees no leveling of the global economy. Quarterly sales of Wendy's and Burger King were below expectations. Procter & Gamble's household products sales will continue to fall, says the company, and next year's earnings will be below Wall Street expectations. (Admittedly, corporate CEOs generally talk down earnings expectations so their stocks can get a pop when the company does better, but still, these are important warnings.) Economic news today (May 28) is not so hot. A record 12% of homeowners with mortgages are behind in payments or in foreclosure. The latest increases in new home sales and durable goods orders were improved, but not impressive. General Motors's bondholders look like they will agree with the company's new offer; Monday's bankruptcy looks certain. While the bankruptcy news has been discounted by professional investors, the public may react negatively. Before 2009 started, I predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would end the year at 9,000. This morning as I write this, it is at 8,333, and I stick with the forecast. But it has always been based on the flood of liquidity, not on an expectation of much economic improvement. And remember: two years from now, the severe hangover -- in the form of inflation -- sets in.
The stock market has finished three martinis and is now working on its fourth. Governments have poured so much liquidity into global economies (more than $13 trillion in the U.S. alone), and used every trick in the book to lower interest rates, that stocks almost have to rise. Most economists think the recession will end in the second half of this year, but struggle through a very slow recovery. Now, some corporate chief executives who have a good feel for consumer sentiment are warning that sobriety is in order. McDonald's sees no leveling of the global economy. Quarterly sales of Wendy's and Burger King were below expectations. Procter & Gamble's household products sales will continue to fall, says the company, and next year's earnings will be below Wall Street expectations. (Admittedly, corporate CEOs generally talk down earnings expectations so their stocks can get a pop when the company does better, but still, these are important warnings.) Economic news today (May 28) is not so hot. A record 12% of homeowners with mortgages are behind in payments or in foreclosure. The latest increases in new home sales and durable goods orders were improved, but not impressive. General Motors's bondholders look like they will agree with the company's new offer; Monday's bankruptcy looks certain. While the bankruptcy news has been discounted by professional investors, the public may react negatively. Before 2009 started, I predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would end the year at 9,000. This morning as I write this, it is at 8,333, and I stick with the forecast. But it has always been based on the flood of liquidity, not on an expectation of much economic improvement. And remember: two years from now, the severe hangover -- in the form of inflation -- sets in.