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Good Employment News Breaks Pattern: Dollar, Stocks Rise Together

For months, U.S. stocks, commodities, and bonds have all risen as the dollar has dropped against other currencies. The word on Wall Street has been: "Sell the dollar and buy anything else." But good employment news this morning (Dec. 4) has broken the pattern. U.S. stocks are up stoutly, and so is the dollar. The Labor Department reported that the nation lost only 11,000 nonfarm jobs in November, as the unemployment rate dropped to 10% from 10.2% in October. Most of the details of the report were favorable, although the number of people unemployed for longer than six months rose to 5.9 million, accounting for a record 38.3% of the unemployed.

Once again, the so-called birth/death adjustment model boosted the number of jobs -- this time by 30,000. This is a computer-generated estimate of jobs created by new companies. On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report, which covers only the private sector, reported that jobs in small business declined by 68,000 in November. Although they are not really apples to apples, there should be some correlation between the two, and there hasn't been for some time.

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For months, U.S. stocks, commodities, and bonds have all risen as the dollar has dropped against other currencies. The word on Wall Street has been: "Sell the dollar and buy anything else." But good employment news this morning (Dec. 4) has broken the pattern. U.S. stocks are up stoutly, and so is the dollar. The Labor Department reported that the nation lost only 11,000 nonfarm jobs in November, as the unemployment rate dropped to 10% from 10.2% in October. Most of the details of the report were favorable, although the number of people unemployed for longer than six months rose to 5.9 million, accounting for a record 38.3% of the unemployed.

Once again, the so-called birth/death adjustment model boosted the number of jobs -- this time by 30,000. This is a computer-generated estimate of jobs created by new companies. On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report, which covers only the private sector, reported that jobs in small business declined by 68,000 in November. Although they are not really apples to apples, there should be some correlation between the two, and there hasn't been for some time.

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