Here's something you might be interested in.
The U.S. lost 247,000 jobs in July, the fewest in a year, as the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 9.4%, according to the Labor Department. Analysts had been expecting a loss of 320,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.6% There were some very slight gains in important measurements: the average work week inched up from June's all time low of 33 hours to 33.1 hours. Hourly earnings rose slightly from $18.53 to $18.56. "It's genuinely better news," says E. James Welsh of Carlsbad, whose newsletter has generally had one of the best records in the U.S. "Say, you are really sick, with a temperature of 103. It goes down to 102.2. But you are still sick. It takes a gain of 125,000 jobs each month just to absorb new workers."
This year, the monthly number of jobs lost has gotten help from a dubious statistic: what's called the birth/death adjustment model. It is a computer adjustment -- not real time data -- estimating how many jobs have been gained by small and new corporations. In May, some eyebrows went up when this model reported an addition of 220,000 jobs, thus lowering job losses sharply. In June it recorded a gain of 185,000 jobs. In July, the gain went down to 32,000. "It had a much lower effect than in other months this year," says Welsh. However, there is still much reason for skepticism. On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report indicated that small businesses, those with fewer than 50 workers, lost 138,000 jobs in July. That number doesn't seem to correlate with the Labor Department's gain of 32,000 jobs from new businesses.
The U.S. lost 247,000 jobs in July, the fewest in a year, as the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 9.4%, according to the Labor Department. Analysts had been expecting a loss of 320,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.6% There were some very slight gains in important measurements: the average work week inched up from June's all time low of 33 hours to 33.1 hours. Hourly earnings rose slightly from $18.53 to $18.56. "It's genuinely better news," says E. James Welsh of Carlsbad, whose newsletter has generally had one of the best records in the U.S. "Say, you are really sick, with a temperature of 103. It goes down to 102.2. But you are still sick. It takes a gain of 125,000 jobs each month just to absorb new workers."
This year, the monthly number of jobs lost has gotten help from a dubious statistic: what's called the birth/death adjustment model. It is a computer adjustment -- not real time data -- estimating how many jobs have been gained by small and new corporations. In May, some eyebrows went up when this model reported an addition of 220,000 jobs, thus lowering job losses sharply. In June it recorded a gain of 185,000 jobs. In July, the gain went down to 32,000. "It had a much lower effect than in other months this year," says Welsh. However, there is still much reason for skepticism. On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report indicated that small businesses, those with fewer than 50 workers, lost 138,000 jobs in July. That number doesn't seem to correlate with the Labor Department's gain of 32,000 jobs from new businesses.