Here's something you might be interested in.
Since the onset of the Crash of 2008, I have been warning on an irregular basis that all of the old economic models BC (Before Crash) have to be tossed out or substantially re-worked as to their assumptions, especially the backward-looking models based on only one or a few select market variables. Holistically, none of them make much sense anymore, when the government can step in and protect "too big to fail" firms from the consequences of stupid bonus seeking behavior when that behavior amounts to really unreasonable but somehow unquantifiable risk.
DJIA at or below 8000 is not unreasonable because...
Banks, hedge funds, insurers, and other mega-financials will not give up the tools that begat the necessary conditions for the Crash of 2008, namely the derivatives of derivatives of mortgages, under-collateralized credit default swaps, and other more exotic financial products still under wraps for later introduction.
It's really that simple.
As long as those mega-financials need those tools to inflate earnings and asset holdings during what everyone admits is an extremely weak and tepid "recovery", the same fear of financial collapse remains, now compounded by a years-long freeze on new credit for consumers, small businesses, and other entities that are just the right size to be allowed to fail. Like just under the size of the country of Greece, or smaller.
Yes, I know that PE ratios are attractively low, but so is the bait hanging in that bear trap to a hungry bear that really, really wants to be a bull or a butterfly or something else that doesn't have to pick through garbage cans.
Be aware that there are "opportunities to make money" out there, but more importantly, be safe because those surviving mega-financials still rely very much in their closely-guarded business plans on separating you from your money.
You have been targeted.
Since the onset of the Crash of 2008, I have been warning on an irregular basis that all of the old economic models BC (Before Crash) have to be tossed out or substantially re-worked as to their assumptions, especially the backward-looking models based on only one or a few select market variables. Holistically, none of them make much sense anymore, when the government can step in and protect "too big to fail" firms from the consequences of stupid bonus seeking behavior when that behavior amounts to really unreasonable but somehow unquantifiable risk.
DJIA at or below 8000 is not unreasonable because...
Banks, hedge funds, insurers, and other mega-financials will not give up the tools that begat the necessary conditions for the Crash of 2008, namely the derivatives of derivatives of mortgages, under-collateralized credit default swaps, and other more exotic financial products still under wraps for later introduction.
It's really that simple.
As long as those mega-financials need those tools to inflate earnings and asset holdings during what everyone admits is an extremely weak and tepid "recovery", the same fear of financial collapse remains, now compounded by a years-long freeze on new credit for consumers, small businesses, and other entities that are just the right size to be allowed to fail. Like just under the size of the country of Greece, or smaller.
Yes, I know that PE ratios are attractively low, but so is the bait hanging in that bear trap to a hungry bear that really, really wants to be a bull or a butterfly or something else that doesn't have to pick through garbage cans.
Be aware that there are "opportunities to make money" out there, but more importantly, be safe because those surviving mega-financials still rely very much in their closely-guarded business plans on separating you from your money.
You have been targeted.