A few of my friends think I have a gambling problem. I don't. I love betting on football. I used to love betting on boxing. But when I bet $100 on Evander Holyfield to lose a fight, and he clearly lost...and the judges called it a "draw"...I decided it's not worth risking, with Don King and all the others lurking around behind the scenes.

I did have a slip when I was in Vegas a year ago, and Oscar de la Hoya was fighting. I thought he'd win, and bet $25 in the sports book. He lost.

But I usually win my Oscar bets. I do one pool with a number of friends. One loss really stung. It was hundreds of dollars on the line. I picked Pulp Fiction to win Best Screenplay. It did. I got most of the Forrest Gump picks, but I thought that for Best Adapted Screenplay, The Shawshank Redemption would beat out Gump. I think it's a better movie. And since it was a short story by Stephen King, I thought the fact that they made a great movie out of it would be a shoe-in. I was wrong. And another guy had picked Gump for that, and beat me by one.

And it's such a weird thing with the Academy. I would've had no problem with Titanic winning Best Picture, since it got so many nominations. It's just the fact that the thing sounds like it was written for 13-year-old girls. That dialogue is awful.

This year, it's The Reader that perplexes me. The movie was below average. Even the critics didn't give it great reviews (it was around 65% on Rotten Tomatoes, which averages critic reviews). The make-up was horrible. But, as some people have said, you make a Holocaust movie it'll get nominated (Hell, Kate Winslet herself joked about it on the show Extras, where she played a Holocaust survivor "just to get an Oscar nomination.")

So, I thought I'd share my picks. And anyone interested can use these, and clean up in their pool.

For Best Picture...geez, it pains me to even do this. I wouldn't have The Reader on the list, but would've replaced it with Burn After Reading. I would've taken Benjamin Button out (which was good, but not great), and replace that with The Dark Knight. But, going with what IS nominated: Slumdog Millionaire. It has all the buzz, and has won a few other big awards. Benjamin Buttons could possibly win, since it was nominated for so many other awards. But, there were many critics that didn't like the picture. Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon was better than many expected, but it was flawed. Milk was good, but had it's slow moments...I'm going Slumdog.

BEST ACTOR: I'm not even sure why Brad Pitt is nominated. I love him as an actor (go back and rent A Riven Runs Thru It or 12 Monkeys...the guy can act). But in this movie, all these wonderful events are going on around him, and he just sits back casually taking it in. He wasn't great in the film. Frank Langella was good as Nixon, but often when an actor plays a real person, they merely end up with the nomination. Although, I do think Penn will get the Oscar for playing Milk. It's a shame, because Mickey Rourke deserves it for The Wrestler, but he won't win (and stop calling it a "comeback"; he had a big part in Sin City a few years back, and then the starring role in Domino after that).

Richard Jenkins was great in The Visitor, a movie I enjoyed. But most of that was his sad-sack face, as oppose to actual acting. And with him, that cliche has never been more true -- it was an honor just to be nominated.

BEST ACTRESS...The Oscars will do what many people hate. They'll give it to Kate Winslet for BOTH of her performances this year (Revolutionary Road and Reader). And she's never won. They love stories like that. Streep could possibly sneak in, but she's won the big bald guy, and some critics didn't care for her in Doubt (I loved her in it). I didn't see Changeling, but hear Angelina Jolie was good in it.

I thought Melissa Leo was amazing in Frozen River, but it was a small indie film (somewhat interesting, but not great). I would've picked Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married, one of my favorite films of the year. And a performance that wasn't over the top, but perfectly nails the character.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR. Two things about this catagory. The fact that Philip Seymour Hoffman is in it for Doubt is a travesty. He was NOT in a support role. He was the lead. It's that crap studios pull, because they think he'd have a better shot winning in that category than going against Sean Penn, etc, in the category he should be in.

Robert Downey Jr. was one of the only funny things in Tropic Thunder, and it was such an interesting role, playing an actor that so wants to win awards, he gets a pigment operation to become black.

Josh Brolin, to me, did absolutely nothing in Milk. Any actor could've played this part. I think this is the one category that isn't going to have any surprises. The late Heath Ledger is going to win for The Dark Knight. And the cameras will probably show Michelle Williams 20 times.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS. I think Amy Adams should win for Doubt. I loved her character. It encapsules the movie title (the ending sure doesn't). She won't win, though. All the buzz is behind Penelope Cruz. Which is a performance I didn't care for, in a Woody Allen movie that was average, at best.

I loved Taraji Henson, the mom in Benjamin Button. I think Marisa Tomei was great in The Wrestler, although miscast (yeah...someone that looks like her not having guys look at her in a strip club because she's too old). I think Viola Davis being nominated for Doubt is ridiculous. She had one scene with Meryl Streep. Unless they come up with a category for actors that just pop into one scene (and yeah, she's amazing in that scene, but still).

BEST DIRECTOR. Has Ron Howard ever won this award? I know he's won an Oscar, I just can't remember if it was for directing. I think it may have been.

Gus Van Sant has proven himself to be overrated, but Milk was worthy of him getting the nod.

The director of The Reader shouldn't be on this list at all. The award is going to go to Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire. He won the Golden Globe, and a whole host of other awards. And people love his films (anyone see Trainspotting? it's a great movie, although dark at times).

Some Oscar pools don't deal with all the small awards, and I can't say I blame them. My picks:

Original Screenplay: Milk (it's the only Best Picture nominee nominated here...although I'd like to see In Bruges snag this award, which often goes to an underlooked picture that people loved or got critical praise).

Adapted Screenplay. This may be the first year that two plays got nominated (frost/nixon, doubt). I think it's a toss up between Buttons (based on a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald) and Slumdog.

Editing. Again, I think it's a toss-up. They may give it to The Dark Knight, especially since it didn't get some nominations people thought it should've gotten. But Slumdog could run away with all the awards, including this.

Cinematography. I would love to see Button win this one. I think Slumdog might, though.

Art Direction. Maybe I'm not exactly sure what this is. And why Slumdog didn't get the nomination in here. So, it will be the one category Button will win.

Original Score. Slumdog will win. People loved the music and vibe of the score. I usually only remember the score of a film (It's really supposed to enhance the movie, not be noticed)....if I loved it (El Postino) or hated it (Driving Miss Daisy).

Original Song. I'd have to say the song in Slumdog will win. The one they did the Bollywood dance to in the closing credits. I'm rooting for Peter Gabriel for Wall-E. Maybe someone should stand outside the Oscars, holding a boom box and playing it, the way they did his song in the movie Say Anything.

Costume Design. Probably will go to The Duchess'. It seems like those period pieces win. Even when a movie is critcally panned, the way Marie Antoinette was (by the way...did anyone see Restoration with Robert Downey Jr.? came out about 13 years ago, but was amazing).

Makeup. An easy pick. Benjamin Button. They made Pitt look young and old, but did an especially great job with Cate Blanchett (the aging of Winslett in The Reader was horrible).

Sound Editing. Usually it's musicals that get a lot of these nominations. But since Mama Mia was just a fluff piece and no musicals got the nod, The Dark Knight will win this one.

Visual Effects. I have to think Benjamin Button takes this. Everyone that saw it wondered how they got Pitt's old face on a short body, etc.

Foreign Language Film. This is the first year I haven't seen ANY of the nominees. But everyone says Waltz With Bashir (which last I saw, was playing at the Landmark in Hillcrest).

Documentary. Man on Wire. I saw this movie twice in the theatres, it was so good. But, Trouble the Water, about Katrina, is the "important" movie. It might pull an upset and drown the tightrope dancer.

Documentary Short. I have no clue. Is this one of those categories where they give out the awards a few days before, and we don't even see their speeches?

Animated Feature. I think everyone realizes Wall-E is going to take this.

The last two shorts, well...I really don't know what is even nominated and just don't care to look it up.

If you win money based on my picks, I want a cut!