San Diego unions push transaction tax

SP, I am the master puppeteer and you dance on command. Make it easy on yourself and use Wolfram
— September 28, 2011 2:25 p.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Another thing,SP, if you are so knowledgeable about statistics and probability, here's a little problem for you to show us you can solve. Two identical boxes. One of them contains 10 balls numbered 1-10. The other one contains 100 balls numbered 1-100. You don't know if the box on the left contains 10 or 100. You use a coin flip to choose one of the boxes and ask a friend to pick a ball at random from it. The ball he picks has the number 9 written on it. What is the probability that the box you chose contained 10 balls?
— September 28, 2011 12:03 p.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Television, any TV rots your mind.
— September 28, 2011 11:42 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Sure you do SP, sure you know more than I do. Keep pulling out that ruler to compare your penis size. Maybe someday you'll win. Out of curiosity, what is your CV other than you being a lawyer with really bad manners? Where did you go to school, degrees etc? How many actuarial exams have you passed? I guarantee that I've passed more SOA exams than you and I took them for the same reason Hilary climbed Everest, because they were there. Furthermore, with as much scrutiny that you've given my posts, when I mentioned using Bayesian Statistics as part of the tools in my chest, had you really known squat about statistics, you should have been attacking me all over. You give yourself away. Inquiring minds want to know.
— September 28, 2011 11:40 a.m.

Alfred Rappaport and Todd Buchholz take sides on risk-taking

When I went to NU, I was over on the other side and not at Kellogg. That being said, I have always kept up with the papers and scholarship of the academics in the B-School. Rappaport wrote a very interesting paper on ten ways to increase shareholder value, and although I don't buy every suggestion, the paper makes me question my own mindset. http://tinyurl.com/2vsek9q I like Rappaport, and my only problem with him is his buying into the cult of personality of the Oracle of Omaha lock, stock, and barrel.
— September 28, 2011 9:48 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Don, you said there are plentiful jobs on Wall Street? I keep my ear to the ground and don't know too many firms hiring other than the odd position to fill, but plenty are laying off. Who's hiring in meaningful numbers?
— September 28, 2011 7:30 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Don, I have a pretty good collection of 30+ market related books over on my blog. You can download them all and read them right off the site. Pretty interesting stuff. http://masteroftheuniverse.wordpress.com/books-to… I also have another collection of classical books to download for all of those books you never got to get around to in college. Pretty decent selection there also\Jeff
— September 28, 2011 6:30 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Very good:)
— September 28, 2011 4:12 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

You should read Clews book and draw your own conclusions. Don, you should be careful about your concern with double digit returns. Did it ever occur to you that the average yearly return of the DJIA from 1899-2010 is 9.4% because of the pronounced upward drift...not saying it was up every year but you get the gist? Did you know that from the 1930-2000 the NYSE specialist firms made an average of 0.7% trading their own book PER DAY, with most never having losing years? Did you know that C@rgill makes an average of 22% per year off it's grain futures trading and hasn't had a losing year in the grains since 1958? My friends in the HFT business tell me that their average yearly returns on capital run around 18%. Congressmen beat the benchmarks by an average of 55 basis points per month or 6% per year. http://www.bepress.com/bap/vol13/iss1/art4/ The average FX desk on a large bank returns 13-18% per year. But your concern about large returns tells me that you should get a copy of Dimson's out of print book, "Triumph of the Optimists." You are also assuming that to generate large returns that I am doing the exact same thing that you're doing and that's the farthest thing from the truth. Generally speaking, if the public is buying, I am selling and vice versa. On a big move down when the public is selling, I am buying and when there's a big move up I am probably selling into it. The public is wrong on average, a statistically large part of the time. For the system to exist, it is essential that the public buy at the top and sell at the bottom on average....there is no other way. Then you talk about large returns...it's one thing to try and earn 15% off a 50 billion dollar portfolio and another thing to earn 15% off of a 15 million dollar account. Scalability is a real issue here. The average successful exchange member trading his own account vs the general public their own account is like Secretariat running against a broken down mule. Where the exchange member wins out is lower costs of transaction, quicker trades, more information, lower slippage, lower or no margin(this is a huge advantage)and the biggest advantage...getting first crack at the inside market(buying at the bid and selling at the ask). If all transactions are buying at the bid and selling at the ask, one will get those outsize returns of 0.7% average per day. Exchange seats don't cost 6-7 figures for no reason. As far as investigations go, the public managers undergo plenty of scrutiny. I'm not public and I've had my dealings with the CFTC, NFA, a couple of exchanges I belong to, the IRS. I am way too familiar with the mechanics of an audit. The only thing I've ever been nailed for was exceeding position limits a few times, a few tax disputes with the IRS, and trading wheat for a friend(ex-friend) without a brokerage license/Series 3.
— September 28, 2011 4:09 a.m.

San Diego unions push transaction tax

Would you even know how to calculate a standard deviation?
— September 27, 2011 6:20 p.m.