The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Twister, your idea of capital preservation is very smart. One needs to play a strong defensive game in these treacherous times but it's not as easy as it looks. Like you I don't see any signs that bode well, and I am seeing some dark clouds on the horizon. With the dollar index hovering near the all time bottom, around 80(off it's 2002 high of 106), equities and commodities are the only thing you can put those depreciating dollars in where you have a chance of making a positive return. With most interest rates firmly in the negative return zone, and the yield curve what it is, it makes no sense to even save, especially if your saving in dollars. I don't think the stock market is going up per se, it's just that currencies are losing so much value their decline is causing the stock market to appear to go up. Here's a sample of 5 year charts on gold prices in all the major currencies. http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-forex.html Sorry I couldn't put up my Bloomberg screenshot of gold charts, but the charts I linked give you the gist of the fact that all the major currencies are losing value. Anyways, I wouldn't particularly mind seeing a market blow off like 2008 where one could step in and buy good stocks and make 20% on a stock in a week or so. I have done extensive work quantifying the risk/reward for stepping in on panics and buying good stocks when the indices have a greater than 7% decline in one day. Buying panics seems to be the best method(from a trading standpoint) for taking money out of the stock market. Rothschild, Gould, Vanderbilt, Fiske, Henry Clews and old Joseph Kennedy always stepped in on panics.
— December 27, 2011 7:40 a.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

And yours also.
— December 27, 2011 4:54 a.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

So did Pat Paulsen.
— December 26, 2011 6:35 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

I call him Falstaff because he reminds me of Shakespeare's John Falstaff. http://www.essortment.com/shakespeares-falstaff-6… He's probably likeable in a perverted sense of the word, but has no social skills as all his time is spent bullying people on sites. I suspect that he has no friends. What a sad way to have to go through life. I've gotten private messages from other commentators in these threads that tell me that he's been banned from many sites, and only appears on this site because this is the end of the road. If the Reader ever enforces their TOS, he'll have to move on. Again, I wonder what his real name is and if he has the courage to reveal himself. Just operating with a pseudonym plus his own episodes of lifting stuff off the internet makes his accusations moot.
— December 26, 2011 6:34 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Don, this is your dinner party and I suspect that you have more control than you let on. You should not tolerate bad guests, this isn't the Jerry Springer show.
— December 26, 2011 12:43 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Hey SP, Falstaff or billybobhenry, or Johnnyvegas. What is your real name? Be a real man instead of a coward.
— December 26, 2011 12:41 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Don, That apparition has called me a liar. Prove me wrong on the mental illness. He has only been responding for a couple of years and how many posts??? That could be a sign of illness, plus his drunk writings might be a sign of more. And why don't you insist that Falstaff give his real name? I guess since he mostly agrees with you that you won't give him a pass. I suppose if he was blasting you like he does me, he'd be banned in a heartbeat. I guess there are a few sets of rules around here and they apply differently to different folks. SP(Falstaff or whatever you call yourself), be a man and tell us your real name.
— December 25, 2011 6:51 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Falstaff, I have exposed your many rip offs on the web and you won't address them, just like you won't solve statistical problems which you claim expertise. What is your real name? I don't like talking to straw men.
— December 25, 2011 6:45 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Don, I am not ashamed of my name or who I am or what I do or have accomplished in my life. I propose that SP give us his real name and not hide behind a pseudonym while blasting away at my character with total bombast without suffering any consequence to his reputation. After all, he knows your real name, he knows mine, why can't we know his? Is he a coward? The public would be better served if we could look him up, see his CV etc and determine whether he was real or a flake or whatever. After all, while I have profound disagreements with you, we are still gentlemen, are civil, and we trade scholarly papers and information offline all the time, all we hear from SP(Falstaff) is hyper-infused, shrill invective with no substance. I am pretty sure he's at least a paralegal, or maybe he even went to a California Law School, but it would be nice to see the specter who hides behind the mask. Furthermore, the people in charge at the reader post, most prominently, "We prohibit profanity, libel, spam, racial epithets, and the harassment and abuse of others." As I see it, I've been libeled and harassed by SP for months, a gnome who operates with total anonymity while my identity is in the open. Something is wrong with this picture.
— December 24, 2011 7:43 p.m.

The Stock Market Roller Coaster

Falstaff, just let it go, you're not going to win so let it be. But your earlier comment raises an important question. I've noticed that you post a lot to the Reader....2400 posts in 2.5 years to be exact. I've noticed that you make a lot of mistakes and misspellings in your ramblings which brings me to another qustion. With the amount of wild emotion, mistakes, bombast, invective, and poor research, one could say that you are writing a lot of this while drunk or stoned. Do you need help? Are you in danger of hurting yourself or another? Can we arrange an intervention? Can I help you? Your mental illness would explain a lot. Your accusations of my "stealing from someone else's website," is very amusing, since I am a major contributor and cite and link to the site. If I thought that you were any more than a little flea biting my crotch, I would spend some time and copy and paste the links to places that you lift(which is 25% of the time) content and use it as your own, but I'd probably spend the better part of a week doing so. What you accuse me of doing is exactly what you do on an everyday basis as you haven't an original thought in your head. I don't have the time to waste on fringe players like you and will only respond when I'm totally bored....which isn't often .
— December 24, 2011 7:30 p.m.