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Need: males, Republicans, Latinos
Stadium vote: "challenging but winnable"
The passing of a new Chargers stadium ballot measure next year will be "challenging but winnable," according to a study by the National University System Institute for Policy Research.
The Republican-Latino coalition that put the ballpark over the top in 1998 may come through again, says Vince Vasquez of the institute, but stadium proponents "will have to build a broader coalition beyond Republican and Latino voters."
A subsidy for the Chargers would do better in precincts that have a lot of residents of the Centre City Planning Area, males, a greater percentage of Republicans, and a larger proportion of those of Asian and Latino ethnicity. Female and independent voters might vote against the subsidy.
The backing of the mayor is not as important as some think.
"Mayors who lose teams don't do any worse or better in their later political careers than mayors who retain teams or preside over new stadium construction," says Vasquez.
Vasquez's study did not refer to the need to spend on the rundown infrastructure possibly denting the pro-subsidy vote. I asked him about water.
After all, a prominent study says there is a 50 percent chance of a ten-year drought in the Southwest, particularly hitting San Diego. But Vasquez thinks San Diego has water under control: he thinks the county will "avoid rationing and dramatic rate hikes."
The Padres got the Latino vote in 1998, but then raised prices so high that many Latinos were priced out of games. Vasquez didn't think that would be a problem.
Here's something you might be interested in.
Need: males, Republicans, Latinos
Stadium vote: "challenging but winnable"
Need: males, Republicans, Latinos
Stadium vote: "challenging but winnable"
The passing of a new Chargers stadium ballot measure next year will be "challenging but winnable," according to a study by the National University System Institute for Policy Research.
The Republican-Latino coalition that put the ballpark over the top in 1998 may come through again, says Vince Vasquez of the institute, but stadium proponents "will have to build a broader coalition beyond Republican and Latino voters."
A subsidy for the Chargers would do better in precincts that have a lot of residents of the Centre City Planning Area, males, a greater percentage of Republicans, and a larger proportion of those of Asian and Latino ethnicity. Female and independent voters might vote against the subsidy.
The backing of the mayor is not as important as some think.
"Mayors who lose teams don't do any worse or better in their later political careers than mayors who retain teams or preside over new stadium construction," says Vasquez.
Vasquez's study did not refer to the need to spend on the rundown infrastructure possibly denting the pro-subsidy vote. I asked him about water.
After all, a prominent study says there is a 50 percent chance of a ten-year drought in the Southwest, particularly hitting San Diego. But Vasquez thinks San Diego has water under control: he thinks the county will "avoid rationing and dramatic rate hikes."
The Padres got the Latino vote in 1998, but then raised prices so high that many Latinos were priced out of games. Vasquez didn't think that would be a problem.
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